Forecast: 10GbE To Be The Top-Selling Ethernet Switch By 2016
By 2016 sales of 40 and 100GbE products will amount to $3 billion, Dell'Oro said in its five-year forecast for the Ethernet Switch market. The company, which is focused exclusively on networking and telecommunications equipment market research, expects the strongest growth in 10GbE Ethernet in 2013 and 2014 as enterprise data centers invest in the technology for server access through a mix of connectivity options for blade and rack-mounted servers.
Growth in 10GbE deployments will be driven by continued adoption of virtualization, meaning servers will be running at higher utilization rates than do non-virtualized servers, said Alan Weckel, senior director at Dell'Oro Group. Another driver is expected to be the expected server refresh cycle prompted by the release of Intel's new Romley microprocessor platform, which will provide the faster server throughput that is needed for virtualization.
"Romley comes out in the first half of 2012, so 2012 is going to be the time that enterprises go through qualification tests of the new servers and new switches. The hockey stick up is [in] 2013," Weckel said.
Vendors in this burgeoning market include Alcatel-Lucent, Avaya, Brocade, Cisco Systems, Extreme Networks, Dell, HP, IBM, and Juniper Networks, but Weckel declined to say which specific vendors Dell'Oro thinks will benefit more from 10GbE sales than others.
Vendors are seeing the same pick-up that Dell'Oro sees.
"This is the year of 10 gig," said Arpit Joshipura, chief marketing officer for Force 10 Networks, which was acquired by Dell in August 2011. "All of a sudden, this year we will see a lot more 10 gigabit deployments and it's already starting to happen in our customer base."
Joshipura, who came to Dell from Force 10, said Force 10 developed the first 10GbE switches about 10 years ago and would have hoped the technology would have caught on sooner but is nonetheless happy that sales are picking up. However, while the rate of growth of 10GbE switch sales is strong, Dell still sells far more 1GbE switches than 10GbE ones. Based on unit sales, he estimated 90 percent of sales are of the previous generation 1GbE products.
Likewise, Cisco Systems sees strong growth in the 10GbE market and crossed the 10 million unit sales mark in December 2011, said Shashi Kiran, senior director of data center and enterprise networking at Cisco.
Kiran said Cisco currently enjoys a 76 percent share of the 10GbE market and that, although the majority of their sales are also still of 1GbE products, the growth rate for 10GbE is higher. He also said that as more 10GbE switches are deployed, Cisco is acting proactively to see what other points on a network may appear as "choke points" for the faster 10GbE traffic.
Kiran also said unit sales of 10GbE products are driven by declining prices, which makes it easier for customers to justify purchasing 10GbE to replace 1GbE on their networks.
Dell'Oro's Weckel provided some specifics: Across all vendors, the average selling price of a 10GbE product was $388 per port in 2011, down from $818 per port in 2008.
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